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solonavi 28 March 2007 Climate, General 906 views 2 Comments Print This Post  Email This Post

MSNBC

Global warming could re-make the world’s climate zones by 2100, with some polar and mountain climates disappearing altogether and formerly unknown ones emerging in the tropics, scientists said on Monday.

Such changes would endanger some plants and animals while providing new opportunities for others, said John Williams, a study co-author and an assistant professor of geography at the University of Wisconsin, Madison.

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Using global change forecasts prepared for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, researchers led by Williams used computer models to estimate how climates in various parts of the world would be affected. Their findings were published in this week’s online edition of Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The IPCC, representing the world’s leading climate scientists, reported in February that “warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observation of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level.”

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The models suggest that existing climate areas will shift toward higher latitudes and higher elevations, squeezing out the climates at the extremes — tropical mountaintops and the poles — and creating new climates around the equator, particularly the rain forests in the Amazon and Indonesia, Williams’ researchers concluded.

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But that also means temperature changes of 3 or 4 degrees in these regions might have more impact than a change of 5 to 8 degrees in a region that is accustomed to regular changes.

Species living in tropical areas may be less able to adapt, he said, adding that that is speculative and needs further study.

Areas like the Southeastern United States and the Arabian Peninsula may also be affected, the researchers said.

And they said mountain areas such as in Peruvian and Colombian Andes and regions such as Siberia and southern Australia face a risk of climates disappearing altogether.

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If some regions develop new climates that don’t now exist, that might provide an opportunity for species that live there, Williams said. “But we can’t make a prediction because it’s outside our current experience and outside the experience of these species.”

Alan Robock, a professor of environmental sciences at Rutgers University welcomed the report, calling it the first he has seen “that not only looks at species extinctions, but also looks at regions where novel climates will appear.”

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A key question is becomes not just whether a given climate still exists, Williams said, but “will a species be able to keep up with its climatic zone? Most species can’t migrate around the world.”